Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14640

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.803). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14639, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14640
    30 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

    ZFHX3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZFHX3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcc6b212a571b987e

    discovery-0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.803)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc79d09263147bedf69bbda7…
    follows b76ab297c810…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14640: ZFHX3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFHX3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.