Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14639

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.906). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14638, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14639
    30 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

    ZFHX3

    microglia, braak

    predictionZFHX3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered330a86336ea8dfe3

    discovery+0.05 p=0.906 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.906)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b76ab297c8102eeebafdbf6a…
    follows d5115f85f08f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14639: ZFHX3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.19, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFHX3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.