Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14599

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14598, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14599
    30 Oct 2026, 00:12 UTC

    FKBP15

    microglia, braak

    predictionFKBP15 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9dea8e894991398f

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    78fc3d6be36be45d27698dad…
    follows eb72a8c00499…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14599: FKBP15 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.22, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FKBP15 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.