Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14511

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14510, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14511
    29 Oct 2026, 22:10 UTC

    ATF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede2646add3fbf5305

    discovery+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0b9182d5be8f1ba2f1e69c2f…
    follows 3da66c867216…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14511: ATF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.05, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATF1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ATF1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.6e-4)