Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ATF1

activating transcription factor 1

translation score 0.41, read 2026-10-29; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.40
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
12 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
3 Parkinson's papers of 1,1680.82
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 14504

Sealed predictions

  1. ATF1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.23 (p 0.549) → -0.21 (p 0.591)receipt 14511

Swarm cases

receipt 14511: ATF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.05, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATF1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ATF1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.6e-4)

Receipts

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