Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14488

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.249). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14487, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14488
    29 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

    DPYD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDPYD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered05cc417e246bac67

    discovery+0.43 p=0.249 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.839 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.249)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69dd8cbd2e7352f827aad1ac…
    follows df3e9036b556…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14488: DPYD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPYD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.