Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14487

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14486, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14487
    29 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

    DPYD

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDPYD in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c6e98faefc4d50e

    discovery+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df3e9036b556e9d192f3f19d…
    follows 876af13f5bef…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14487: DPYD in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPYD in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.