Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14481

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14480, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14481
    29 Oct 2026, 21:32 UTC

    G2E3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionG2E3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4f4eff177c80159b

    discovery+0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.501 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ac8c6b18318f2cda33c1b74…
    follows a73386829a14…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14481: G2E3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for G2E3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.