Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14480

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.654). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14479, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14480
    29 Oct 2026, 21:29 UTC

    MCM3AP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCM3AP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered616c86304a7df742

    discovery-0.17 p=0.654 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.654)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a73386829a14e58f11700bf7…
    follows 1ffb7da4e981…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14480: MCM3AP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCM3AP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.