Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14416

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14415, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14416
    29 Oct 2026, 20:03 UTC

    CDH24

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCDH24 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf5a21d911b686996

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b2433052bfaadb25f3c014b…
    follows f5751a0f1248…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14416: CDH24 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDH24 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.