Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1436

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.227). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1435, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1436
    17 Oct 2026, 22:42 UTC

    JAK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d0cb28a2f2b276c

    discovery+0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.227)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    360c4366a7339297a110e696…
    follows 0804eca8b838…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1436: JAK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.