Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14352

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.795). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14351, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14352
    29 Oct 2026, 18:34 UTC

    DERL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDERL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22b4a4059482f12a

    discovery-0.10 p=0.795 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.795)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b66057eebbb49621cd3cee9…
    follows a84ad7c3bff8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14352: DERL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DERL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.