Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14351

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14350, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14351
    29 Oct 2026, 18:31 UTC

    RDH16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRDH16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered69a06234fc261bc2

    discovery-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.435 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a84ad7c3bff8dacc3e3a49f2…
    follows 252ed581b7b4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14351: RDH16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RDH16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.