Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14322

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.623). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14321, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14322
    29 Oct 2026, 17:52 UTC

    ASTN2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionASTN2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecaa092752c9245f

    discovery-0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.623)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c1a08d5e448ef2490f0993f9…
    follows c762fed254d9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14322: ASTN2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.03, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASTN2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.