Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14319

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14318, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14319
    29 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC

    CHST6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCHST6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7fad17a0e449e395

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6ed1ffcad98ee94282ceeb87…
    follows eeafd0c89459…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14319: CHST6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.11, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHST6 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.