Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14276

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14275, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14276
    29 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    LTB4R

    microglia, braak

    predictionLTB4R in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4cce0c154ae96af2

    discovery-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    37a4cd628444a091224a04b8…
    follows 35ab79a92c2c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14276: LTB4R in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.06, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LTB4R in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.