Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14239

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14238, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14239
    29 Oct 2026, 16:02 UTC

    TRIO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e78768eda55b315

    discovery-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6dccfc1571226713b150f22d…
    follows 5468614f4c2b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14239: TRIO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.