Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14232
    29 Oct 2026, 15:54 UTC

    UBE2F

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2F in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb68dd8d9119026dc

    discovery-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3da67c19619a8606158ccf0…
    follows 402e18278e19…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14232: UBE2F in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.10, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2F in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.