Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14231

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14230, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14231
    29 Oct 2026, 15:53 UTC

    UBE2F

    microglia, braak

    predictionUBE2F in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcccf7eeeb82f95b4

    discovery-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    402e18278e197fd9d2b527f8…
    follows 22e237f8c3a8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14231: UBE2F in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2F in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.