Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0142

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.43, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 141, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0142
    16 Oct 2026, 17:29 UTC

    CHRM2

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionCHRM2 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered45735c9185fb6a95

    discovery-0.43 p=0.133 n=29

    replication+0.15 p=0.584 n=26

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.43, p 0.133)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3d7d8e9104245372c742f76…
    follows ef6e2b6cd976…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0142: CHRM2 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.570, n 55), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.11 (p 0.570, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.628, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.528, n 46). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.53 (p 0.0071, n 55) vs -0.11 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
braak beats resilience for CHRM2 in dopamine neurons: +0.37 (p 5.7e-4, n 84). proposing braak.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up CHRM2 · OPCs · resilience: ventral tegmental area +0.34 p 0.054 (needs p < 0.0024)