Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0141

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.44 p 0.0038; held-out +0.28 p 0.076). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 140, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0141
    16 Oct 2026, 17:29 UTC

    CHRM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHRM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6dc04c77034e60cf

    discovery+0.44 p=0.0038 n=42

    replication+0.28 p=0.076 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.44 p 0.0038; held-out +0.28 p 0.076)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ef6e2b6cd976eccaa13f6e71…
    follows 5d80cd67e4d2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0141: CHRM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 5.7e-4, n 84), 95% CI +0.17 to +0.54. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.39 (p 2.2e-4, n 84). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.229, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 1.8e-4, n 75). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
nigra beats braak for CHRM2 in dopamine neurons: +0.36 (p 6.9e-4, n 84). proposing nigra.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.