Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14177

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14176, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14177
    29 Oct 2026, 14:33 UTC

    SLC43A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC43A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15c1ce2fa5b84ac0

    discovery-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d85d37a0a3727e063b3b4470…
    follows 102668e3cb2f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14177: SLC43A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC43A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.