Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14176

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14175, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14176
    29 Oct 2026, 14:33 UTC

    SLC43A3

    microglia, braak

    predictionSLC43A3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7d117d153a7261e

    discovery+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    102668e3cb2fbfc5658288f1…
    follows d835d409a2c4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14176: SLC43A3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC43A3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.