Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14171

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14170, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14171
    29 Oct 2026, 14:27 UTC

    CABLES1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCABLES1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda48dd70c6380e758

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca1f2264a3776b23c0e764d3…
    follows 6e84bc3a45a9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14171: CABLES1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CABLES1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.