Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14150

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14149, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14150
    29 Oct 2026, 13:57 UTC

    CYB5R3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYB5R3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb5a850f7fa344b9a

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.80 p=0.0099 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b570e0e6431787891550e24…
    follows 569699bbea5d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14150: CYB5R3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.70 (p 0.0012, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYB5R3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CYB5R3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.47 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.6e-4)