Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14133

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.687). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14132, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14133
    29 Oct 2026, 13:34 UTC

    POLR2F

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPOLR2F in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda474155b8a33a3b5

    discovery-0.16 p=0.687 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.687)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c8172a05c1e92926e97d54e1…
    follows cb0ca0aa4e8d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14133: POLR2F in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR2F in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.