Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1410

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1409, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1410
    17 Oct 2026, 22:09 UTC

    ARPC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARPC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcccd4ab1fe6bda8c

    discovery+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c8393cd0835a794b2dd9ec5…
    follows 8b60a15d0227…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1410: ARPC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARPC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.