Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14097

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14096, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14097
    29 Oct 2026, 12:44 UTC

    HID1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHID1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered77ca55f1d8ccbbc5

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    639ea64c8d0d4dcd36be8591…
    follows baef4f0887d5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14097: HID1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HID1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.