Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14085

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14084, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14085
    29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC

    FAM221A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM221A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcc15cb14954a496d

    discovery+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d1539290f328fbbc56ef6a0…
    follows e5989d4fbb5c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14085: FAM221A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM221A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.