Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14069

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.244). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14068, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14069
    29 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC

    TSPAN15

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSPAN15 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddcc2470a245d0003

    discovery-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.369 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.244)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5bf2de78fa02f70f8127ec44…
    follows d0acc9916c10…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14069: TSPAN15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.