Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14068

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.24 p 0.535). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14067, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14068
    29 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC

    TSPAN15

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTSPAN15 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf27241685b2ffef6

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.24 p 0.535)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d0acc9916c1065a48912458d…
    follows 58f60015ef84…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14068: TSPAN15 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN15 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.