Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14002

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14001, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14002
    29 Oct 2026, 10:41 UTC

    TEX22

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTEX22 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb697b3eb073b0189

    discovery-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6bbc3a07ec208ab54419afb9…
    follows e7efdf323201…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14002: TEX22 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TEX22 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.