Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14001

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14000, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14001
    29 Oct 2026, 10:38 UTC

    PNKP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNKP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered06fe48043481c9f8

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7efdf323201e3b12794831d…
    follows a6ba20df5ef1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14001: PNKP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNKP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.