Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13991

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13990, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13991
    29 Oct 2026, 10:24 UTC

    CYTH4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYTH4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda7f3c937e94a7001

    discovery-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    631e129a920eb493d249de3b…
    follows 69d38401eadc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13991: CYTH4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYTH4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.