Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13990

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.874). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13989, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13990
    29 Oct 2026, 10:23 UTC

    CYTH4

    microglia, braak

    predictionCYTH4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ac7dc1cc693b41b

    discovery+0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.874)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69d38401eadc25da9ab22e2d…
    follows b894b96951ad…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13990: CYTH4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYTH4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.