Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13984

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13983, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13984
    29 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC

    F7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionF7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered295daa11a0deb60c

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f5c6b2c6ca51d239d8521b94…
    follows 0c2f4d5eea2f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13984: F7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for F7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.