Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13922
    29 Oct 2026, 08:47 UTC

    DOCK1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDOCK1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae3876538d8c83b6

    discovery-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d5cfe8b71575e00336c78a9…
    follows 747466bb365d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13922: DOCK1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.