Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13845

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13844, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13845
    29 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC

    STARD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTARD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd4948230974e71e6

    discovery-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ff6f71403451f521d9db2ca…
    follows e67808ae629d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13845: STARD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STARD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.