Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13844

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13843, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13844
    29 Oct 2026, 06:59 UTC

    POU2F3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOU2F3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e7e1d1baf06ec3e

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.247 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e67808ae629d7205a7317618…
    follows ed94d273ee72…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13844: POU2F3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POU2F3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.