Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13829

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13828, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13829
    29 Oct 2026, 06:39 UTC

    POLR3G

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPOLR3G in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered949a0de48e93f2f9

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.80 p=0.010 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cafa1274b420d48a1fdfe661…
    follows e3ed618d8512…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13829: POLR3G in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR3G in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.