Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13705

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13704, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13705
    29 Oct 2026, 03:47 UTC

    GPM6A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPM6A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredacd73c2ea0215282

    discovery-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.78 p=0.013 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5aa4b3d814be23d30bf8a411…
    follows 7dcec6a44e5b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13705: GPM6A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPM6A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.