Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13704

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13703, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13704
    29 Oct 2026, 03:47 UTC

    GPM6A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGPM6A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede31bd0768381d6df

    discovery-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7dcec6a44e5b6c790c54a7c1…
    follows 37f8704a9b60…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13704: GPM6A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPM6A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.