Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13691

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13690, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13691
    29 Oct 2026, 03:30 UTC

    NIPSNAP3B

    microglia, braak

    predictionNIPSNAP3B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3107efa7a9c3160e

    discovery+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a2ca9656693f465796cd722…
    follows c9970a50f4a3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13691: NIPSNAP3B in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NIPSNAP3B in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.