Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13685

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.288). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13684, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13685
    29 Oct 2026, 03:22 UTC

    USH2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUSH2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d91fcd1e8c48fff

    discovery+0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    replication+0.64 p=0.065 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.288)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ba295c7da7e8cbda4ffe1f6e…
    follows 5601e882b645…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13685: USH2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USH2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.