Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13616

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13615, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13616
    29 Oct 2026, 02:26 UTC

    FAM171B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM171B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered48fb5fc3c852d08e

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.235 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e662ac7d7692edc0c9992fb3…
    follows 941916d6b18b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13616: FAM171B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM171B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.