Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13615

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13614, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13615
    29 Oct 2026, 02:26 UTC

    FAM171B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFAM171B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52e63c16ee103a9a

    discovery+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    941916d6b18bd1278fe22f51…
    follows 1239eea9f74f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13615: FAM171B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM171B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.