Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0136

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.08, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 135, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0136
    16 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC

    SCN1A

    oligodendrocytes, resilience

    predictionSCN1A in oligodendrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredb745627b235d7682

    discovery-0.08 p=0.807 n=30

    replication+0.19 p=0.468 n=25

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.08, p 0.807)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cfacdfc5a077883001842f0a…
    follows db55b41c6142…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0136: SCN1A in oligodendrocytes, resilience

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.966, n 55), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.07 (p 0.736, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.52 (p 0.0075); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.801, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.09, sign flips 19; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.616, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for SCN1A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.