Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0135

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.863). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 134, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0135
    16 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC

    SCN1A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCN1A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ca51415ef2dc735

    discovery-0.03 p=0.863 n=42

    replication-0.11 p=0.469 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.863)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    db55b41c6142cdd05a86d835…
    follows 5c0174124070…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0135: SCN1A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.418, n 84), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.13. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.07 (p 0.518, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.09 (p 0.422); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.472, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.743, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in GABA neurons: +0.31 (p 0.0040, n 84) vs -0.09 in oligodendrocytes. proposing GABA neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN1A in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up SCN1A · GABA neurons · braak: ventral tegmental area +0.11 p 0.317 (needs p < 0.0025)