Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13596

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13595, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13596
    29 Oct 2026, 01:59 UTC

    RFNG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRFNG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd9027117ce4b80a8

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d0f0f020599d2611dd13e08a…
    follows 55cf70f013d4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13596: RFNG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0049, n 18) vs -0.07 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RFNG in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RFNG · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 1.7e-4)