Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13595

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.080). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13594, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13595
    29 Oct 2026, 01:56 UTC

    ADCY4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADCY4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered941c890903db6b7f

    discovery-0.61 p=0.080 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.080)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    55cf70f013d47bb12bdedbc7…
    follows d37d12d00d39…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13595: ADCY4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.